Macro briefs
Every Thursday: what moved liquidity, inflation momentum and geo-risk, what the model did about it, and what it would take to flip the regime. Long, calm, charted, and free. Plus occasional desk notes about the product itself — including what the banker does on its own, and where it has been wrong.
CPI 3.4 %, the bond market saw it first
Two-year yields started climbing eleven days before the print. We walk through what the curve was pricing, why gold did not flinch, how the inflation-momentum component flipped from cooling to re-accelerating, and the 3-point move from long bonds to gold in every profile. Plus: the liquidity index is one bad fortnight away from a regime change.
Read the brief- Issue87
CPI 3.4 %, the bond market saw it first
Two-year yields led the print by eleven days. What the curve knew, and what the model did with it.
- Issue86
Gold at records — what central-bank buying means for a 60/40
Official-sector demand has changed who sets the gold price. Why a 10–20 % sleeve is a structural holding, not a bet.
- Issue85
Liquidity cycles and Bitcoin: a 4-cycle view
Four liquidity cycles, four Bitcoin cycles, one uncomfortable overlap. How we size a volatile asset without pretending to time it.
- Issue88
Why the regime label needs two weeks to flip
Hysteresis in the meter, explained with the 2019 and 2023 false starts.
Coming Thu 2026-09-11 - Issue89
The cash floor — why we are never fully invested
Three, five or seven percent: what the floor costs in risk-on years and buys in risk-off ones.
Coming Thu 2026-09-18 - Issue90
Rebuilding the liquidity index from FRED, step by step
WALCL, M2SL, ECBASSETSW and friends — with the transformation for each series written out.
Coming Thu 2026-09-25
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Briefs are written by the Rulebook Wealth editorial desk from the week's published data. Every chart cites its source series. Data sources →
Outside the weekly rota
Occasional notes about the product rather than the week: what the model does, what it refuses, and where it has been wrong.
What the banker does on its own — and where it has been wrong
You state a mandate once and it builds the portfolio, watches it, prices the rebalance and prints what your choice costs. Then the section most product notes skip: where it has been wrong.
Read the desk noteThe banker, refusing — quoted in the note
The banker, on its own hit rate
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