Brief #87 is out. The regime is risk-off (leaning); your Balanced allocation moved 3 points from long bonds to gold this week. Read brief #87.
Risk-offRisk-on
38Risk-off (leaning)
"Live" uses this week's reading. The others show what the same profile would hold in another regime. Nothing here changes the live model.
Balanced: ~34–55 % equities, Bitcoin capped at 10 %, cash floor 5 %.
Model output for an illustrative profile — not a recommendation for any individual investor.
Monte Carlo fan from the historical volatility of the mix, 160 paths, €10,000 start. Illustrative, not a forecast. The median path is not an expectation.
Blue: liquidity index. Teal: regime score. Dashed verticals: events that moved a component by more than one standard deviation.
- A banker that actsSay what you want once; it works between your visits. On Free it takes a standing mandate and reports — the drift, the four house guards, the priced rebalance and its own misses. On Pro it also changes the settings you would otherwise change by hand, and every entry has an undo. It never places a trade.Free & Progive it a mandate → · docs
- All three profilesConservative, Balanced and Growth, rebuilt weekly. Each with its own published bands, the full “why this weighting” note and a drift table against what you actually hold.Pro€19 / month · compare plans →
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- Export & archiveTake the weights with you. Weights, bands and caps as JSON or CSV, plus every regime reading back to 1986 so an old brief can be read against the model that produced it.Pro€19 / month · export formats →
- Issue87
CPI 3.4 %, the bond market saw it first
Two-year yields led the print by eleven days. What the curve knew, and what the model did with it.
- Issue86
Gold at records — what central-bank buying means for a 60/40
Official-sector demand has changed who sets the gold price. Why a 10–20 % sleeve is not a bet.
- Issue85
Liquidity cycles and Bitcoin: a 4-cycle view
Four liquidity cycles, four Bitcoin cycles, one uncomfortable overlap. How we size a volatile asset.
- Issue88
Why the regime label needs two weeks to flip
Hysteresis in the meter, explained with the 2019 and 2023 false starts.
Coming Thu
2026-09-11
- No leverage, no "signals", no price targets
- Cite the series (FRED id, GDELT query) when you make a claim
- Disagree with the model, politely; the editors read every thread
The readers' forum opens with early access. Posts in this demo are simulated.
Read brief #87