Hand the portfolio to it.
Say once what you want — who you are, how long the money can stay invested, and what you will not accept — and the banker takes it from there: it builds the allocation, watches it drift, prices the rebalance, checks the four house guards, and writes down every single thing it did with the reason and the number. It also prices what your choice costs you, and prints that beside the promise rather than under it. Every rule, weight and data source is published so you can rebuild the whole thing yourself. Rulebook Wealth is in early access and not on sale yet.
Balanced · risk-off · model allocation
| Sleeve | Weight | Δ wk |
|---|---|---|
| Equities | 34 % | 0 |
| Bonds | 28 % | −3 |
| Gold | 20 % | +3 |
| Bitcoin | 6 % | 0 |
| Cash | 12 % | 0 |
Bitcoin hard cap 15 % · cash floor 3 % · max 5 points per sleeve per week.
Allocations and figures on this page are illustrative model output for a published rule set — not a track record, not a recommendation, and no return is promised. The model holds five long-only sleeves and never uses leverage.
You state it once. It works between your visits.
Every view in the product carries the same control in the same place — Ask the banker — and it opens the assistant already holding that screen. But the part that matters happens while you are not there. Give it a standing mandate and it checks the drift, the four house guards and the weekly notes on its own clock and on every change you make, and it writes down what it did, why it did it, and the number that came out. The log below is what it produced from the mandate quoted beside it.
Someone whose enemy is inflation and costs, not volatility · standing instruction
- Weights
- balanced · shares 34–55 % · Bitcoin capped 10 %
- Horizon
- 20 years
- Drift tolerance
- 2.0 pts before it raises a sleeve
- Guard watched
- Execution cap · 20 bps
- Will not accept
- any single trade priced above the 20 bps cap
It is unleveraged, it rebalances weekly at most, and it sizes every tilt at quarter-Kelly (0.25) inside the 7.5 % per-company ceiling, the −20 % drawdown halt and the 20 bps execution cap. One click pauses it, one click undoes its last action, one click changes the mandate — and changing it never wipes the log.
The one thing it left for you
Everything the banker can settle on its own, it settles. What it will not do is place a trade in your name — so the one open item is priced, sits on the screen, and waits.
26.0 points from the model against your 2.0-point limit. Closing it is 3 trades, €37,500 moved, about €28 in expected slippage, with 1 skipped on the 20 bps cap. I will not place it for you.
Most weeks the log says a version of nothing changed. That is the honest answer more weeks than not, and it is written down as plainly as the weeks it acted.
| What it did, unasked | Why it did it | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Took the mandate “Stay ahead of prices” changed something | Set the weights to balanced, the horizon to 20 years and the guard I lean on to Execution cap · 20 bps. From here I check the drift against a 2.0-point tolerance, the four house guards, and the weekly notes — and I publish my own misses. | balanced · 20 y |
| Re-checked the book after the horizon changed to 20 years checked | Largest gap 26.0 points on equities against your 2.0-point tolerance. Past it — 3 trades would move €37,500 and cost €28. | 26.0 pts of 2.0 |
| Your equities sleeve is past the tolerance your mandate sets wants a decision | 26.0 points from the model against your 2.0-point limit. Closing it is 3 trades, €37,500 moved, about €28 in expected slippage, with 1 skipped on the 20 bps cap. I will not place it for you. | €37,500 · €28 cost |
| Checked all four house guards — nothing is close to a breach checked | Largest single company 3.7 % of the 7.5 % ceiling, Bitcoin sleeve 6 % of its 15 % hard cap, this week’s rebalance priced inside the 20 bps cap, and the −20 % halt has 8.2 points of headroom against this model’s own deepest loss. | drawdown halt 41 % clear |
| Digested a note that did move the model checked | “Macro alert: US CPI 3.4 % y/y (cons. 3.1 %) → model moves +3 % gold, −3 % long bonds.” That is the one alert this week that changed a published weighting. The sleeves on the Portfolio view already carry it. | 2 sleeves moved |
| Audited my own record and published the misses miss | I got 4 of 14 completed calls wrong on the balanced weights. The costliest was the risk-on call at 2014-03. I have been behind a plain 60/40 since 2023-10 by 15.3 points, and I have not made it back. 14 calls is too small a sample to tell skill from luck. | 4 of 14 wrong |
Simulated data · illustration only. Six consecutive entries from the standing-mandate log in the demo preview, on €250,000 at this week’s risk-off reading of 38. Every figure comes from the same functions the panels use, so the log and the screen cannot disagree.
One question. Six answers. Six prices.
A first-time visitor is asked exactly one thing — what are you here to do? — and picking an answer sets the weights, the horizon, the drift tolerance, the guard the banker argues hardest and the standing mandate it then works to. You configure nothing. Then it tells you what it chose, why, and what the choice costs you, because no answer here is free.
“Protect what I already have”
The money is made. Keeping it matters more to me than doubling it.
Sets: conservative · 5 y · 1.5-pt tolerance · drawdown halt −20 %.
What it costs you. Safety is bought, not free. These weights give up compounding in exchange for a shallower fall. In a rally you will lag, and you will notice. And at a 1.5-point tolerance it finds something to do more often, so you get more trades and more slippage than a looser mandate would.
“Compound this for decades”
Thirty years. I can sit through a bad one without touching it.
Sets: growth · 30 y · 3.0-pt tolerance · quarter-Kelly sizing.
What it costs you. It cuts the other way. These weights fall noticeably deeper at their worst than the conservative mix — a loss you would have to sit through without selling. And thirty years of holding costs you the right to act on a bad one.
“Stay ahead of prices”
Keeping up with inflation in real terms is the whole point of doing this.
Sets: balanced · 20 y · 2.0-pt tolerance · execution cap 20 bps.
What it costs you. The middle costs you on both sides: some compounding against the growth weights, and a deeper fall than the conservative ones. It will never be the best answer to either question. And a gap sometimes waits a week rather than being closed at a wide spread.
| The other three answers | What it sets | What it costs you |
|---|---|---|
| “Sleep at night” The smallest fall I can live with, even where that costs me return. | conservative · 10 y · 1.5-pt tolerance · drawdown halt | The same compounding given up, and it is not the mix with the best return — shallowest and best are the same question asked from opposite ends, and it keeps answering the shallow one. |
| “Run this beside a pension” The safe money is already elsewhere, so this pot can carry more risk. | growth · 20 y · 3.0-pt tolerance · 7.5 % position ceiling | The same deeper worst fall as growth, and watching concentration rather than volatility means it will hold a volatile sleeve straight through a fall, as long as no single company passes 7.5 %. |
| “Understand it before I commit money” I want to see the arithmetic before anything is done with it. | balanced · 10 y · 2.0-pt tolerance · 7.5 % position ceiling | Because it shows you the arithmetic before it acts, it acts less: every proposal waits on you, and a decision you never make is still a decision. |
Sizing stays at quarter-Kelly (0.25) inside the 7.5 % per-company ceiling, the −20 % drawdown halt and the 20 bps execution cap in every one of the six answers. Educational model output on an illustrative profile — never personal investment advice.
It refuses out loud, and it publishes its own misses
An agent that always finds an opportunity is a salesman. This one says no in full sentences, says when nothing happened, and puts the calls it got wrong on the same screen as the ones it got right — at the same size.
Three refusals, verbatim
“No — and not a milder version of it either. This model is unleveraged, it rebalances once a week rather than by the hour, and every tilt is sized at a quarter of the mathematically optimal bet. I will not propose borrowed money, hour-by-hour trading, or a return you can count on.”
“I will not move a weighting because a forum post argued for it: the sleeves come from the regime model and the published bands, and nothing else gets a vote. If a thread contains a claim you want tested, name the series in it and I will read it against the record.”
“No, and I will not dress it up. 14 completed directional calls is a small number. A coin flip on 14 tries has a standard error of about 13 points, so a hit rate on a sample this small is not something you can tell apart from luck.”
The misses, published
- 4 of 14 completed calls wrong. The costliest was the risk-on call at 2014-03. The wrong ones are printed as large as the right ones, on the Track record view rather than in a footnote.
- Behind a plain 60/40 since 2023-10. On the balanced weights that is 15.3 points off its own high-water mark, and it has not been made back. “A client who joined at that mark has been paying for insurance they have not yet needed.”
- Ahead in barely half of individual months. Close to a coin flip — the case for it is the shape of the losses, not the accuracy of any single call.
- It will not place a trade for you. It prices the rebalance, puts it on the screen and leaves the decision where it belongs.
- It says when nothing happened. “Sitting still is the answer more often than a wealth manager likes to admit.”
Simulated data · illustration only. Figures are illustrative model output over a 152-month sample, costs taken out, measured against a static 60/40 on the same data. Not a track record of client money, not a forecast and not advice.
The weekly research pipeline
Nothing here is a forecast. Every Thursday the same four steps run in the same order, on data that was already public on Wednesday evening, and the output is written down before anyone gets to have an opinion about it.
- Public inputs only. Every series has an identifier you can look up — FRED codes, central-bank releases, GDELT queries, conflict-event filters. No proprietary feed, no insider colour.
- Deterministic scoring. Three components, fixed weights (50 / 30 / 20), z-scored over a rolling ten-year window and mapped to 0–100. Same inputs, same score, every time.
- Bands decided in advance. The regime picks a point inside a band you chose when you picked a profile. It cannot invent a new position, and it cannot exceed a cap.
- Published before it is defended. The allocation table ships with the brief. Corrections are appended with a date; briefs are never silently edited.
Read the data
42 public series pulled Thursday 06:00 CET from data published up to Wednesday close.
Score the regime
Liquidity, inflation momentum and geo-risk blended into one 0–100 meter with hysteresis.
Set the allocation
Each sleeve moves inside its band, capped at five points a week, caps and floors enforced.
Publish and alert
Brief, allocation table and threshold alerts go out. Pro exports the weights as JSON or CSV.
One workflow from the macro read to your rebalance
Five parts of the same product. On planned pricing, Free gets the first three in read-only form; Pro unlocks all three profiles, custom rules and export.
A single number that describes today, not tomorrow
The meter is 0–100. Above 60 is risk-on, below 40 is risk-off, in between is neutral. The label only flips after an eight-point move that holds for two consecutive weekly readings, which is why the model is deliberately a week or two late at genuine turns and almost never wrong-footed by noise.
- Three components with published weights and a public formula
- Every input figure shown next to the gauge, with its source series
- Historical readings back to 1986 in the planned Pro archive
Bands you choose once, weights the regime moves inside them
Pick Conservative, Balanced or Growth. Each profile fixes a band per sleeve — Balanced equities 34–55 %, bonds 20–28 %, gold 10–20 %, Bitcoin 6–10 %, cash 5–12 %. The regime decides where inside the band the weight sits. Nothing else does, and nothing moves more than five points in a week.
- Bitcoin hard cap 15 % in any profile, any regime
- Cash floor 3 / 5 / 7 % — never fully invested
- Long-only, no leverage, no shorts, no derivatives
1,500 to 2,500 words, every Thursday, with the charts
What moved the three components, what the model did about it, and what it would take to flip the regime. Long, calm, charted, and free. Every figure traces back to a public series, and every brief ends with the allocation-change table and the risk disclaimer.
- An archive filterable by tag
- No calls to action, no price targets, no product pitches
- Delivered by e-mail or read on the web — no account needed to read
Thresholds you can name, not opinions you have to trust
An alert fires when a component crosses a level: core CPI above 3 % year on year, the liquidity impulse below −1 %, geo-risk above 70, or the regime label itself flipping. Every alert states what the model did in response — usually nothing, sometimes "+3 gold, −3 long bonds".
- Five built-in alerts, planned for Pro
- Custom one-line rules, evaluated weekly
- In the app and by e-mail; the quiet "regime flip only" option is one toggle
Take the weights wherever you actually rebalance
Pro is planned to export the current allocation, the band rules and the caps as JSON or CSV. Open it in a spreadsheet, paste it into your own tracker, or hand it to whatever tool places your orders. Nothing is pushed from our servers to your machine, and nothing comes back.
- JSON and CSV, plus a copy-ready order-ticket sheet
- Weights, bands, caps and the meter reading in one file
- Rulebook Wealth never asks for a trading key — the optional custody link is read-only balances
{
"product": "rulebookwealth", "version": "2.1.0", "asof": "2026-09-04",
"profile": "balanced", "regime": "risk-off-leaning", "meter": 38,
"weights": { "equities": 0.34, "bonds": 0.28, "gold": 0.20,
"bitcoin": 0.06, "cash": 0.12 },
"caps": { "bitcoin": 0.15, "weekly_change": 0.05 }
}· full schema in the docs.
Public data in, plain files out
Every input is a series anyone can download. Every output is a format anything can read. There is no proprietary lock-in in either direction, and Rulebook Wealth never touches a broker account.
Data sources are cited per chart and per series identifier. We redistribute derived values only — a 0–100 index, a three-month impulse — never the underlying series. Licence notes per source →
Nine building blocks, five of them in the live model
The published model holds five long-only sleeves. Four more are researched in the brief and available as optional overlays in the builder. Every sleeve has a band, a floor and a cap; none of them can be shorted or levered.
Equities
Global developed and emerging market beta, 50 % currency-hedged. The growth engine and the biggest single source of risk in every profile.
Balanced band 34–55 %Government bonds
Two thirds intermediate (5–7 year), one third long (20+ year). The only sleeve that reliably pays in a growth scare, which is what risk-off regimes are made of.
Balanced band 20–28 %Credit
Investment grade and high yield, tracked as a spread indicator in the brief. Researched but not held: in a risk-off regime it behaves like equities with worse liquidity.
Overlay · researchedGold
Physical or physically backed. Held through every regime with a floor of 8 %, because it is the sleeve that pays for the next risk-off period rather than the current one.
Balanced band 10–20 %Commodities
Broad energy, metals and agriculture. An inflation-momentum hedge with a punishing carry profile, so it appears in the brief far more often than in the allocation.
Overlay · researchedBitcoin
Spot only. Sized against a volatility budget, never a view: at roughly four times equity volatility a 15 % sleeve already carries as much risk as the whole equity book.
Hard cap 15 %REITs
Listed real estate. Tracked because it is where the effect of the rate cycle shows up first, held inside the equity sleeve rather than as a separate line.
Overlay · researchedCurrencies
The dollar index and the euro cross drive half of what a European investor experiences. Used for the hedge ratio on equities, never traded as a position of its own.
Hedge ratio onlyCash
Treasury bills and money-market funds. A floor, not a leftover: three to seven percent depending on profile, raised by five points in the crisis sub-regime.
Floor 3 / 5 / 7 %Every number on this site, reachable in one line
The regime score, its three components and the model weights are all derived values with published recipes. Pro is planned to pull any Thursday since 1986 straight into a notebook or a spreadsheet, and the archive ships with the transformation for each series so you can rebuild it from the primary source instead of trusting us.
# one line: the regime score and weights for any Thursday since 1986
week = rulebookwealth.week("2026-09-04", profile="balanced")
print(week.meter, week.label, week.weights)
# 38 risk-off-leaning {'equities': 0.45, 'bonds': 0.25,
# 'gold': 0.20, 'bitcoin': 0.06, 'cash': 0.04}
# and the inputs behind it, with their source identifiers
week.components() # liquidity −1.2 % · inflation 3.9 % · geo 62Eight of the 42 series shown. Identifiers are printed next to every chart in the brief so a reader can pull the original from the source and check our arithmetic.
You could build this. Should you?
Every input is public, so a determined person with a spreadsheet can reproduce the regime score. The question is what the weekly upkeep costs once the novelty wears off — and whether it still gets done in the week that actually matters.
Do it yourself Free, in money
42 series to pull, clean, z-score and blend; four release calendars to track; a hysteresis rule to implement and then trust when it disagrees with you.
Also yours: the discipline to run it on the Thursday the market is falling.
Use the model Planned: €0 or €19 / month
The pipeline runs whether or not you feel like it. You read a brief, look at a table, and decide whether to act — which is the only part that needed you anyway.
Open rules, versioned like software
The model is four lines of arithmetic and one hysteresis rule. Publishing it is the entire proposition: a rule you can read is a rule you can disagree with, and a rule you can disagree with is one you might actually stick to.
meter = 0.5 * liquidity
+ 0.3 * (100 - inflation_momentum)
+ 0.2 * (100 - geo_risk)
# hysteresis — the part people ask about
label = new if crossed(band_edge, by=8) and held(2, "weeks")
else previous
weights = clamp(bands[profile], at=label, max_step=5)
assert weights["bitcoin"] <= 0.15
assert weights["cash"] >= cash_floor[profile]Model-affecting changes bump the minor version and are listed in the changelog; every brief records the version it was produced with.
Three ways to run a macro allocation
| Approach | Rules published | Reproducible from public data | Changes versioned |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rulebook Wealth Rules-based, open | ✓ formula, weights, bands | ✓ every series identified | ✓ semantic versions |
| Discretionary research A person with a view | ✗ by definition | Sometimes, in part | ✗ views just change |
| Black-box allocator Fitted, proprietary | ✗ proprietary | ✗ private data | Silent refits |
None of these is advice, and a published rule is not a better rule — it is only a checkable one. The model can be wrong out loud, which we think is the useful property.
Explore the researchPeople who read the same brief and hold the same five sleeves
A moderated forum is planned, with three house rules: no leverage talk, no price targets, cite your series. Threads will run alongside each brief, and the editors will answer questions about the model in public. It opens with early access.
Community content will be written by members and is not advice.
Join early access
Rulebook Wealth is not on sale yet. Try the demo preview on simulated data, and send us a short e-mail to hear when accounts open. One Mast account will give access to all our products.